# Thinking in Bets ## Metadata * Author: [Annie Duke](https://www.amazon.comundefined) * ASIN: B074DG9LQF * ISBN: 0735216371 * Reference: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B074DG9LQF * [Kindle link](kindle://book?action=open&asin=B074DG9LQF) ## Highlights Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future. The implications of treating decisions as bets made it possible for me to find learning opportunities in uncertain environments. Treating decisions as bets, I discovered, helped me avoid common decision traps, learn from results in a more rational way, and keep emotions out of the process as much as possible. — location: [113](kindle://book?action=open&asin=B074DG9LQF&location=113) ^ref-5530 --- Poker, in contrast, is a game of incomplete information. It is a game of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty over time. (Not coincidentally, that is close to the definition of game theory.) Valuable information remains hidden. There is also an element of luck in any outcome. You could make the best possible decision at every point and still lose the hand, because you don’t know what new cards will be dealt and revealed. Once the game is finished and you try to learn from the results, separating the quality of your decisions from the influence of luck is difficult. — location: [353](kindle://book?action=open&asin=B074DG9LQF&location=353) ^ref-36424 --- What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.” — location: [434](kindle://book?action=open&asin=B074DG9LQF&location=434) ^ref-38334 ---